WASHINGTON — President Obama
warned Syria on Monday that it would face American military intervention if
there were signs that its arsenal of unconventional weapons was being moved or
prepared for use. It was Mr. Obama’s first direct threat of force against
Syria, as he has steadfastly resisted being drawn into the bloody 18-month
rebellion.
The president’s warning raises the pressure on President Bashar
al-Assad, whom Mr. Obama again called on to relinquish power. And it
underscores the deepening alarm among American officials that, as Syria sinks
further into civil war, its unconventional weapons could be seized by radical
forces tied to terrorist groups like Hezbollah or Al Qaeda.
The warning brings Mr. Obama, who has brushed aside calls to impose a
no-fly zone or to arm the Syrian rebels, a step closer to direct American
engagement. The specter of unconventional weapons being loosed in the heart of
the Arab world, he said, would upend his calculation that military intervention
would only worsen the situation.
“We cannot have a situation in
which chemical or biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong
people,” Mr. Obama said in response to questions at an impromptu news
conference at the White House. “We have been very clear to the Assad regime but
also to other players on the ground that a red line for us is, we start seeing
a whole bunch of weapons moving around or being utilized.”
“That would change my calculus,” he
added. “That would change my equation.”
Western authorities say that Syria’s arsenal includes chemical weapons
but that they are uncertain whether the country has stockpiled biological
weapons.
The president said the Pentagon was drafting a range of contingency
plans, working with American allies in the region, including Israel and Turkey.
He expressed little confidence that the Syrian government could keep its
weapons stockpile under lock and key, given the widespread strife in the
country.
Last month, American officials said they had unspecified evidence that
Mr. Assad’s forces had moved some parts of the stockpile out of storage,
although the transfer was never confirmed. Experts on Syria speculated at the
time that the move reflected the government’s worry about the security of the
weapons, not any intent to use them.
A senior administration official emphasized that Mr. Obama’s warning
was aimed at large-scale transfers of weapons that would make them vulnerable
to capture by radical forces, not movements by the government intended to
secure the arsenal.
The administration said it was monitoring suspected weapons sites,
along with Turkey and Jordan, and has held extensive discussions with Israel
about how to respond to any breaches of security.
Mr. Obama, who has said little about Syria in recent weeks, stressed
the regional risk from its unconventional weapons. “That’s an issue that
doesn’t just concern Syria,” he said. “It concerns our close allies in the
region, including Israel. It concerns us.”
His comments seemed aimed as much at the Israelis as the Syrians.
Israeli officials have indicated they might intervene if they thought those
weapons were on the loose and might be unleashed on their territory.
By hinting that the United States might participate in locating and
neutralizing the weapons, Mr. Obama was clearly trying to forestall the possibility
of an Israeli move into Syria — and the reaction it might provoke.
For weeks, Mr. Obama’s aides and outside advisers to the White House
and Pentagon have been saying that if Syria’s presumed stockpiles of
unconventional weapons got loose, only the United States and a small group of
European allies would have the technological capability to neutralize them.
That would almost certainly require the insertion of specialized teams, which
would require considerable protection while operating inside Syria.
The Pentagon contingency plans include worst-case scenarios that would
require tens of thousands of American troops, two senior United States
officials said on Monday. The officials, who declined to specify precisely how
many troops might be needed, emphasized that the plans were the kind of
worst-case contingency options that the Pentagon routinely draws up in crises,
and that no American deployments were imminent.
“The problem is that the material
is so dispersed,” said an expert who has been consulted by the administration.
While the intelligence about the stockpiles is sketchy — there are widely
varying estimates of how much material Mr. Assad has amassed, and where it is
stored — American estimates indicate there could be as many as two dozen sites
around the country.
The search for Syria’s unconventional weapons is yet another example of
how much more complicated the situation in Syria is for the United States than
was the case in Libya a year ago. In Libya, the weapons of greatest concern
were shoulder-fired antiaircraft munitions. They were tracked down by both the
United States and Britain, largely using outside contractors and covert
operatives. But chemical and biological weapons are harder to track down and to
neutralize.
The difficulty in pinpointing Syria’s stockpiles is one of many
complexities that have made Mr. Obama leery of getting drawn into the conflict.
On Monday, he described a so far limited American response that includes $82
million in humanitarian aid to help thousands of Syrian refugees, as well as
efforts to help the Syrian opposition prepare for a transition of power.
It was almost a year to the day since Mr. Obama first called on Mr.
Assad to resign, and he was plainly frustrated by the lack of progress. “So
far, he hasn’t gotten the message and instead has doubled down in violence on
his own people,” Mr. Obama said.
In Syria, Mr. Assad’s forces stepped up their
attacks in and around the southwest city of Dara’a on Monday, with activists
reporting raids, summary executions of suspected opposition figures and
intensified shelling that threatened to reach across the Jordanian border as it
did a day earlier, wounding a young girl inside Jordan. There was no way to
independently confirm those reports.
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